Progress Example Simulation Module

progress.example_simulation.MCS(input_file)

Executes a Mixed Time Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) for reliability analysis using data from various RA modules.

Overview of the Process:

  1. Configuration & Setup: - Reads simulation parameters (e.g., number of samples, simulation hours, file locations) from a YAML file. - Initializes paths for system data, wind data, and solar data.

  2. System Data & Preprocessing: - Creates instances of RASystemData and RAUtilities to read generator, branch, bus, load, and storage data, along with their reliability parameters (Mean Time To Failure, Mean Time To Repair, etc.). - Computes total transition rates and capacities for generation and transmission.

  3. Wind & Solar Integration (if specified): - Invokes Wind and Solar classes to download/process wind or solar data, build transition rate matrices, and retrieve probability distributions or generation profiles.

  4. Matrices & Optimization Setup: - Uses RAMatrices to construct key model matrices (generator matrix, charging matrix, incidence matrix, curtailment matrix). - Defines internal bounds and callbacks for optimization variables.

  5. Monte Carlo Simulation: - For each sample (from 1 to samples), simulates a full year (sim_hours hours), updating component states (up/down) based on reliability transitions. - Recalculates available capacities, updates energy storage states, and computes net load after accounting for wind/solar generation. - Performs an optimization-based economic dispatch (Zonal or Copper Sheet approach) to serve load while minimizing curtailment, capturing load loss events as needed. - Tracks reliability indices, state-of-charge, and curtailment for output.

  6. Index Calculation & Convergence: - Accumulates reliability indices (e.g., LOLP, EUE) and checks partial convergence by computing the Coefficient of Variation (COV) of LOLP across samples. - Writes final reliability metrics to a CSV file and optionally produces an outage heat map if a full-year simulation (8760 hours) is performed.

Parameters:

input_file (str) – Path to the YAML configuration file that provides simulation settings.

Returns:

A tuple containing:

  • indices (dict): Final dictionary of reliability indices for the entire simulation.

  • SOC_rec (np.ndarray): Hourly state-of-charge records for each storage unit.

  • curt_rec (np.ndarray): Hourly load curtailment records for the system.

  • renewable_rec (dict): Wind and solar generation records for visualization.

  • bus_name (list[str]): Names of each bus in the system model.

  • essname (list[str]): Names of each energy storage unit.

  • main_folder (str): Absolute path to the directory containing this script.

  • sim_hours (int): Number of hours in the simulated year (e.g., 8760).

  • samples (int): Number of Monte Carlo samples iterated over.

  • mLOLP_rec (np.ndarray): Running mean of Loss of Load Probability across samples.

  • COV_rec (np.ndarray): Coefficient of Variation array used to check convergence.

Return type:

tuple

Raises:

  • FileNotFoundError – If the YAML config file or any required data file is not found.

  • ValueError – If the YAML config data has invalid or missing fields.

  • RuntimeError – If optimization fails or the underlying solver cannot converge.